Неправильная шведская наука
Aug. 19th, 2020 11:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
borislvinВредные шведские советы - https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19
В частности:
How is COVID-19 transmitted?
The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 is mainly transmitted between people via respiratory droplets or secretions from the respiratory tract. Transmission via droplets happens when an infected person coughs or sneezes and the droplets reach mucous tissue in someone's eyes, nose, or mouth. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
The virus can be transmitted via contaminated surfaces, so-called indirect contact transmission, but the risk of getting infected via contaminated surfaces is considered to be very low. There are no indications that anyone has been infected with the new coronavirus from touching contaminated surfaces or items.
Can COVID-19 be transmitted from a person who is infected but does not experience any symptoms?
The coronavirus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is mainly transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. This means that the virus reaches the inside of your eyes, nose or mouth from droplets that are dispersed in the air when someone sneezes or coughs. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the overall spread of COVID-19 in the community. Based on the available knowledge about COVID-19 and similar diseases, the current understanding is that this route of transmission represents a minor part.
Do I need to clean my house or handle household waste in any particular way?
In a household where someone is ill with COVID-19 it is enough to clean as usual, using products available in supermarkets. Household waste, including paper tissues from infected persons, can be disposed of in your normal way.
What is your advice regarding face masks?
We do not currently recommend face masks in public settings since the scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is unclear. However, there may be situations where face masks can be useful despite the uncertain state of knowledge about the effects.
Why are countries acting differently over face masks?
The scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is weak, which is why different countries have arrived at different recommendations.
Some countries have chosen to view face masks as a form of security and hope that universal use of face masks will reduce the risk of infection spreading from people who are in the incubation period, before the symptoms are apparent, or who have such mild or unspecific symptoms that they do not consider themselves ill.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden does not recommend the general use of face masks, as a face mask that itches or slips down below the nose may mean a person is regularly touching their mouth, eyes or nose with their hands, which can increase the risk of the infection spreading.
Use of a facemask may also encourage people with mild symptoms to go out into the community, which might increase the spread of infection.
If one person in a family is ill, does the whole family need to stay at home?
No, as long as siblings or other members of the family do not show symptoms of disease they can go to school, preschool or their workplace. In families where one or more people are ill, it is very important to be alert to any signs of illness.
Why are universities and colleges only offering distance learning?
As of 15 June 2020 the recommendation ends for upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning to provide distance education rather than classes on their premises.
The reason is that children and youth to a limited extent have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and few have been in need of intensive care. In the light of current knowledge upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning may resume classes on their premises.
I’ve tested positive for antibodies. What are the implications?
For anyone who has no symptoms, the presence of IgG antibodies means they are less at risk of being infected and thus, there is less of a risk that they will pass on the infection to other people.
If you have no symptoms, a positive test result allows you greater opportunities to socialise with other people, even if you are in an at-risk group or are aged 70 or over. In the first place, this could mean socialising with people you are close to, such as friends and family, both indoors and outside.
Why are schools and pre-schools not closed in Sweden?
The Public Health Agency does not currently consider it necessary to close all schools in Sweden. There are no scientific evidence indicating that such an intervention would have any significant impact on the pandemic, nor has any major transmission of COVID-19 in schools been reported.
Closing schools and pre-schools would have a negative impact on society. For example, essential workers to the public (e.g. healthcare staff) would need to stay at home with their children. It could also put vulnerable groups, such as grandparents, at risk if they help out with childcare.
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Результаты следования вредным советам неправильной науки обнаруживаются здесь - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
В частности, там можно увидеть такие картинки:
Динамика численности вновь выявленных инфицированных
Динамика новых поступлений с коронавирусом в отделения интенсивной терапии
Динамика смертности от коронавируса
В частности:
How is COVID-19 transmitted?
The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 is mainly transmitted between people via respiratory droplets or secretions from the respiratory tract. Transmission via droplets happens when an infected person coughs or sneezes and the droplets reach mucous tissue in someone's eyes, nose, or mouth. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
The virus can be transmitted via contaminated surfaces, so-called indirect contact transmission, but the risk of getting infected via contaminated surfaces is considered to be very low. There are no indications that anyone has been infected with the new coronavirus from touching contaminated surfaces or items.
Can COVID-19 be transmitted from a person who is infected but does not experience any symptoms?
The coronavirus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is mainly transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. This means that the virus reaches the inside of your eyes, nose or mouth from droplets that are dispersed in the air when someone sneezes or coughs. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the overall spread of COVID-19 in the community. Based on the available knowledge about COVID-19 and similar diseases, the current understanding is that this route of transmission represents a minor part.
Do I need to clean my house or handle household waste in any particular way?
In a household where someone is ill with COVID-19 it is enough to clean as usual, using products available in supermarkets. Household waste, including paper tissues from infected persons, can be disposed of in your normal way.
What is your advice regarding face masks?
We do not currently recommend face masks in public settings since the scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is unclear. However, there may be situations where face masks can be useful despite the uncertain state of knowledge about the effects.
Why are countries acting differently over face masks?
The scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is weak, which is why different countries have arrived at different recommendations.
Some countries have chosen to view face masks as a form of security and hope that universal use of face masks will reduce the risk of infection spreading from people who are in the incubation period, before the symptoms are apparent, or who have such mild or unspecific symptoms that they do not consider themselves ill.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden does not recommend the general use of face masks, as a face mask that itches or slips down below the nose may mean a person is regularly touching their mouth, eyes or nose with their hands, which can increase the risk of the infection spreading.
Use of a facemask may also encourage people with mild symptoms to go out into the community, which might increase the spread of infection.
If one person in a family is ill, does the whole family need to stay at home?
No, as long as siblings or other members of the family do not show symptoms of disease they can go to school, preschool or their workplace. In families where one or more people are ill, it is very important to be alert to any signs of illness.
Why are universities and colleges only offering distance learning?
As of 15 June 2020 the recommendation ends for upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning to provide distance education rather than classes on their premises.
The reason is that children and youth to a limited extent have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and few have been in need of intensive care. In the light of current knowledge upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning may resume classes on their premises.
I’ve tested positive for antibodies. What are the implications?
For anyone who has no symptoms, the presence of IgG antibodies means they are less at risk of being infected and thus, there is less of a risk that they will pass on the infection to other people.
If you have no symptoms, a positive test result allows you greater opportunities to socialise with other people, even if you are in an at-risk group or are aged 70 or over. In the first place, this could mean socialising with people you are close to, such as friends and family, both indoors and outside.
Why are schools and pre-schools not closed in Sweden?
The Public Health Agency does not currently consider it necessary to close all schools in Sweden. There are no scientific evidence indicating that such an intervention would have any significant impact on the pandemic, nor has any major transmission of COVID-19 in schools been reported.
Closing schools and pre-schools would have a negative impact on society. For example, essential workers to the public (e.g. healthcare staff) would need to stay at home with their children. It could also put vulnerable groups, such as grandparents, at risk if they help out with childcare.
******************************
Результаты следования вредным советам неправильной науки обнаруживаются здесь - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
В частности, там можно увидеть такие картинки:
Динамика численности вновь выявленных инфицированных
Динамика новых поступлений с коронавирусом в отделения интенсивной терапии
Динамика смертности от коронавируса
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no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 04:59 pm (UTC)i am not sure that your statement локдауны - бессмысленны и ничему не помогают, от них только вред can be made looking at just those graphs above. all these graphs say is that the disease is being better controlled in Sweden now, cases and deaths (more importantly) are on the way down and the trend looks optimistic.
jumping from that to - локдауны - бессмысленны и ничему не помогают - is quite a leap.
perhaps lockdowns helped reduce the overall number of deaths: in comparison to seimilar donuntries were lockdowns were effected, like Norway.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:00 pm (UTC)BTW, i was nonplussed at the comparison of Northern Italy and Sweden as two opposing social cultures, leading to Lombardy disaster.
the truth is: they are not. inhabitants of northern alps, both french and italian side, are insular, sturdy and very cagey, unfriendly people. not romans, not sicilians. there is barely any street culture, families do not live together in multigenerational conclaves, as a rule, town people "self-isolate" at baseline, etc, etc.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:55 pm (UTC)В принципе, по смертности Швеция вполне вышла на латиноамериканский уровень и чуть не в два раза превысила средний уровень по EU.
Можно было бы сравнивать с Беларусью, но при сопоставимых количествах заболевших смертность в Беларуси тоже сильно ниже.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 09:10 pm (UTC)В ЕС четко видны два кластера - пострадавшие очень сильно и пострадавшие очень мало.
А примеры Швеции и Норвегии как раз и показывают, что эта дихотомия, это разделение на два кластера - НЕ совпадает с другой дихотомией, с разделением на такие же два кластера, но уже по параметру жесткости карантина/локдауна.
Re:НЕ совпадает с другой дихотомией,
Date: 2020-08-21 06:23 am (UTC)1. С одной стороны, эпидемия - процесс, развивающийся во времени, и самый жёсткий карантин может быть запоздалым.
2. Ограничительные меры должны быть целесообразны, и никакая жёсткость этих мер целесообразности не заменит (случай "домов престарелых в США", например).
3. При этом, однако, ограничительные меры должны быть поддерживаемы населением и социальными институтами (например, костёл в Польше отменил личную явку на мессы, как только запахло жареным).
4. Государство должно обладать силами и средствами для эффективного проведения задекларированных мероприятий (например, в Швеции или Бразилии есть no go zones, и уже поэтому введение карантина теряет смысл. Кстати, при этом дикая политизация вокруг эпидемии приводит к тому, что нужду выдают за добродетель ).
5. Население, видя дикость или неспособность своего правительства к выруливанию из кризисной ситуации, начинает спасаться как может (случай Беларуси, а может и Швеции?).
Пока что внятной научной картины по ковиду нет и вряд ли что-то будет в течении нескольких месяцев, а может и дольше (из-за той же политизации), поэтому продуктивная оценка карантинных мероприятий так же невозможна. Да и потом из-за политизации она последует "задним умом".
В силу вышеизложенного проводить дихотомию по параметру "жёсткость карантина" представляется нецелесообразным ввиду неопределённости последнего.
Норвегия- не член ЕС.
RE: Re:НЕ совпадает с другой дихотомией,
Date: 2020-08-21 03:24 pm (UTC)Re: Карантин, при котором нельзя делать что-то
Date: 2020-08-21 03:45 pm (UTC)Не говоря уже о том, что всякие безумства, навроде масок в парках, просто бессмысленны, как бы свирепо их не блюли.
Поэтому кластеризация по формальной "жесткости" карантина выглядит крайне неубедительно.
Можно пытаться выстроить что-то типа качественной гистограммы с разными критериями, связанными с имплементацией ограничений, но дихотомия тут не просматривается никак.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-21 09:57 am (UTC)Т.е. меры вводили когда заражённых ещё мало было, потому умеренныx хватило.
И наверно глупостей не делали как в сев.Италии и NYC где массово заражали в больницах и домах престарелых ?
no subject
Date: 2020-08-21 10:22 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 02:53 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 03:24 am (UTC)Ho китайская диаспорa к тому моменту уже хорошо знала про вирус и меры борьбы с ним из китайских соц.сетей (известно что в китайской диаспорe в США так было, в Италии очевидно тоже), и потому в китайской диаспорe вирус распространялся медленнее чем в остальном населении.
Отсюда и возникла иллюзия "в италии вспышка началась не с китайской диаспоры" поддерживаемая и пропагандой кругов типа мэрa Флоренции призывавшем в феврале обниматься с китайцами чтоб изжить расизм.
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 03:37 am (UTC)но жалко, конечно, что правительства и врачи не догадались почитать китайские соцсети, а то бы, глядишь, и эпидемии никакой не было
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 06:07 am (UTC)документальныe свидетельствa ecть что:
- Эпидемия началась в Китае в Уханe, и оттуда была разнесена во все остальные места.
- В Европе именно в сев.Италии много работающих там китайцев, и именно там была 1я в Европе сильная вспышка.
- Заметили что "вспышка началась" много позже занесeния вирусa, когда вирус уже широко распространился, и распространение происходило уже вне китайской диаспоры, в частности в сев.Италии поначалу многих заразили в больницах. Итальянское население старее китайской диаспоры, и соответственно чаще в больницы попадали.
- Mэр Флоренции призывал в феврале обниматься с китайцами чтоб изжить расизм.
Так что изложенная мной версия наиболее вероятна, альтернативы выглядят странными и неестественными. А циркулирование версии "в италии вспышка началась не с китайской диаспоры" легко объяснимо политкорректной пропагандой деятелей типа мэрa Флоренции призывавшем в феврале обниматься с китайцами чтоб изжить расизм.
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 01:21 pm (UTC)2. в диаспоре не было никакой вспышки поначалу, они болели позже наравне со всеми остальными.
это все факты. а то, что вы написали выше, это ваши "версии", не имеющие подтверждения, увы.
я, кстати, и сам тоже так думал поначалу, ведь логично же, северная италия, куча китайцев, огромные (по европейским меркам) чайнатауны. пока не поинтересовался подробностями
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 02:12 pm (UTC)Как мне представляется, специфика именно этого вируса такова, что его глобальное распространение было неизбежным. Ключевые факторы - распространение воздушно-капельным путем, замедленное проявление симптомов и очень низкая летальность.
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 02:58 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 03:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 04:44 pm (UTC)разговор про то, кто куда первым вирусы занёс, не я начал, я просто поправил неверное утверждение (т.к. сам на него же попался в свое время)
no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 06:15 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 04:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-09-08 03:07 pm (UTC)Разные "scientists" и "эксперты" уже успели нам в этом году рассказать горы чуши, о которой позже было установлено что это чушь.
> 2. в диаспоре не было никакой вспышки поначалу, они болели позже наравне со всеми остальными.
Hе было. Как и во всех остальных странах, вирус был сначала занесён незаметно неизвестно кем. И проявился когда уже многие болели.
Kитайская диаспорa в сев.Италии не является замкнутой в себе. Те китайцы, которые занесли вирус, заражали и китайцев и местных итальянцев. Но по итальянцам вирус распространялся быстрее в силу известных приведенных выше причин.
Альтернативные гипотезы странны, и требуют объяснения каким образом вирус был занесён кривым длинным путём быстрее чем прямым прямо из Китая. И откуда это стало известно.