Неправильная шведская наука
Aug. 19th, 2020 11:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
borislvinВредные шведские советы - https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19
В частности:
How is COVID-19 transmitted?
The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 is mainly transmitted between people via respiratory droplets or secretions from the respiratory tract. Transmission via droplets happens when an infected person coughs or sneezes and the droplets reach mucous tissue in someone's eyes, nose, or mouth. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
The virus can be transmitted via contaminated surfaces, so-called indirect contact transmission, but the risk of getting infected via contaminated surfaces is considered to be very low. There are no indications that anyone has been infected with the new coronavirus from touching contaminated surfaces or items.
Can COVID-19 be transmitted from a person who is infected but does not experience any symptoms?
The coronavirus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is mainly transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. This means that the virus reaches the inside of your eyes, nose or mouth from droplets that are dispersed in the air when someone sneezes or coughs. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the overall spread of COVID-19 in the community. Based on the available knowledge about COVID-19 and similar diseases, the current understanding is that this route of transmission represents a minor part.
Do I need to clean my house or handle household waste in any particular way?
In a household where someone is ill with COVID-19 it is enough to clean as usual, using products available in supermarkets. Household waste, including paper tissues from infected persons, can be disposed of in your normal way.
What is your advice regarding face masks?
We do not currently recommend face masks in public settings since the scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is unclear. However, there may be situations where face masks can be useful despite the uncertain state of knowledge about the effects.
Why are countries acting differently over face masks?
The scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is weak, which is why different countries have arrived at different recommendations.
Some countries have chosen to view face masks as a form of security and hope that universal use of face masks will reduce the risk of infection spreading from people who are in the incubation period, before the symptoms are apparent, or who have such mild or unspecific symptoms that they do not consider themselves ill.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden does not recommend the general use of face masks, as a face mask that itches or slips down below the nose may mean a person is regularly touching their mouth, eyes or nose with their hands, which can increase the risk of the infection spreading.
Use of a facemask may also encourage people with mild symptoms to go out into the community, which might increase the spread of infection.
If one person in a family is ill, does the whole family need to stay at home?
No, as long as siblings or other members of the family do not show symptoms of disease they can go to school, preschool or their workplace. In families where one or more people are ill, it is very important to be alert to any signs of illness.
Why are universities and colleges only offering distance learning?
As of 15 June 2020 the recommendation ends for upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning to provide distance education rather than classes on their premises.
The reason is that children and youth to a limited extent have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and few have been in need of intensive care. In the light of current knowledge upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning may resume classes on their premises.
I’ve tested positive for antibodies. What are the implications?
For anyone who has no symptoms, the presence of IgG antibodies means they are less at risk of being infected and thus, there is less of a risk that they will pass on the infection to other people.
If you have no symptoms, a positive test result allows you greater opportunities to socialise with other people, even if you are in an at-risk group or are aged 70 or over. In the first place, this could mean socialising with people you are close to, such as friends and family, both indoors and outside.
Why are schools and pre-schools not closed in Sweden?
The Public Health Agency does not currently consider it necessary to close all schools in Sweden. There are no scientific evidence indicating that such an intervention would have any significant impact on the pandemic, nor has any major transmission of COVID-19 in schools been reported.
Closing schools and pre-schools would have a negative impact on society. For example, essential workers to the public (e.g. healthcare staff) would need to stay at home with their children. It could also put vulnerable groups, such as grandparents, at risk if they help out with childcare.
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Результаты следования вредным советам неправильной науки обнаруживаются здесь - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
В частности, там можно увидеть такие картинки:
Динамика численности вновь выявленных инфицированных
Динамика новых поступлений с коронавирусом в отделения интенсивной терапии
Динамика смертности от коронавируса
В частности:
How is COVID-19 transmitted?
The coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 is mainly transmitted between people via respiratory droplets or secretions from the respiratory tract. Transmission via droplets happens when an infected person coughs or sneezes and the droplets reach mucous tissue in someone's eyes, nose, or mouth. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
The virus can be transmitted via contaminated surfaces, so-called indirect contact transmission, but the risk of getting infected via contaminated surfaces is considered to be very low. There are no indications that anyone has been infected with the new coronavirus from touching contaminated surfaces or items.
Can COVID-19 be transmitted from a person who is infected but does not experience any symptoms?
The coronavirus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is mainly transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. This means that the virus reaches the inside of your eyes, nose or mouth from droplets that are dispersed in the air when someone sneezes or coughs. The droplets fall to the ground within approximately one meter (3 ft) from the source.
There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the overall spread of COVID-19 in the community. Based on the available knowledge about COVID-19 and similar diseases, the current understanding is that this route of transmission represents a minor part.
Do I need to clean my house or handle household waste in any particular way?
In a household where someone is ill with COVID-19 it is enough to clean as usual, using products available in supermarkets. Household waste, including paper tissues from infected persons, can be disposed of in your normal way.
What is your advice regarding face masks?
We do not currently recommend face masks in public settings since the scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is unclear. However, there may be situations where face masks can be useful despite the uncertain state of knowledge about the effects.
Why are countries acting differently over face masks?
The scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is weak, which is why different countries have arrived at different recommendations.
Some countries have chosen to view face masks as a form of security and hope that universal use of face masks will reduce the risk of infection spreading from people who are in the incubation period, before the symptoms are apparent, or who have such mild or unspecific symptoms that they do not consider themselves ill.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden does not recommend the general use of face masks, as a face mask that itches or slips down below the nose may mean a person is regularly touching their mouth, eyes or nose with their hands, which can increase the risk of the infection spreading.
Use of a facemask may also encourage people with mild symptoms to go out into the community, which might increase the spread of infection.
If one person in a family is ill, does the whole family need to stay at home?
No, as long as siblings or other members of the family do not show symptoms of disease they can go to school, preschool or their workplace. In families where one or more people are ill, it is very important to be alert to any signs of illness.
Why are universities and colleges only offering distance learning?
As of 15 June 2020 the recommendation ends for upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning to provide distance education rather than classes on their premises.
The reason is that children and youth to a limited extent have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and few have been in need of intensive care. In the light of current knowledge upper secondary schools, colleges, universities, and other institutions of higher education or adult learning may resume classes on their premises.
I’ve tested positive for antibodies. What are the implications?
For anyone who has no symptoms, the presence of IgG antibodies means they are less at risk of being infected and thus, there is less of a risk that they will pass on the infection to other people.
If you have no symptoms, a positive test result allows you greater opportunities to socialise with other people, even if you are in an at-risk group or are aged 70 or over. In the first place, this could mean socialising with people you are close to, such as friends and family, both indoors and outside.
Why are schools and pre-schools not closed in Sweden?
The Public Health Agency does not currently consider it necessary to close all schools in Sweden. There are no scientific evidence indicating that such an intervention would have any significant impact on the pandemic, nor has any major transmission of COVID-19 in schools been reported.
Closing schools and pre-schools would have a negative impact on society. For example, essential workers to the public (e.g. healthcare staff) would need to stay at home with their children. It could also put vulnerable groups, such as grandparents, at risk if they help out with childcare.
******************************
Результаты следования вредным советам неправильной науки обнаруживаются здесь - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
В частности, там можно увидеть такие картинки:
Динамика численности вновь выявленных инфицированных
Динамика новых поступлений с коронавирусом в отделения интенсивной терапии
Динамика смертности от коронавируса
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no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:42 am (UTC)Там по ссылке ещё интересно сравнить графики слева: Intensivvårdade per åldersgrupp - и Avlidna per åldersgrupp. Получается, престарелые, давшие подавляющую часть превышения смертности, оказались без интенсивной терапии.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:48 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 11:06 am (UTC)Известно, что шведы принимают более ограниченные меры, что многие оспаривают.
Но графики, которые вроде бы должны приводить к каким-то выводам, ни к каким выводам не приводят (как минимум, без пояснений).
График вновь обнаруженных носителей со всплеском в июне может говорить об изменениях в диагностике или охвате диагностикой.
Наиболее показательный график смертей от вируса показывает на явный спад эпидемического кризиса и мало отличается от аналогичных для Франции или Италии. И уж точно гораздо лучше выглядит, чем российский или американский.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 03:33 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 03:40 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 04:41 pm (UTC)Школы были закрыты примерно полтора месяца, причем в аналитическом отчете медицинского ведомства эффект от закрытия школ был оценен как незначительный или негативный (liten eller negativ) - https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/vedlegg/notat-om-risiko-og-respons-2020-05-05.pdf
Остальные меры тоже были очень скромные. Рестораны не закрывались, коллективные мероприятия ограничивались верхней границей в 200 человек, и т.д.
Вот постоянно обновляемый перечень ограничений на официальном сайте правовой информации - https://lovdata.no/dokument/SF/forskrift/2020-03-27-470
Или примерно то же самое, но на сайте медицинского ведомства - https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/veiledere/koronavirus (с линками на ограничения в конкретных областях)
Что касается обязательного ношения масок, то для людей без симптомов заболевания оно ведено ТОЛЬКО для общественного транспорта Осло и ТОЛЬКО на период с 17 по 31 августа - https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/veiledere/koronavirus/reiser-reiseliv-og-kollektivtransport/munnbind-bor-benyttes-ved-kollektivreiser-i-til-og-fra-omrader-i-oslo-og-indre-ostfold
Собственно, я даже не вполне уловил, обязательны ли они для тех, кто пользуется общественным транспортом в Осло, или всего лишь рекомендательны. В любом случае медицинское начальство Норвегии прямым текстом говорит, что НЕ рекомеднует использовать маски для людей без симптомов во всех остальных случаях.
Таким образом, мы видим, что по параметру смертности от коронавируса Норвегия оказывается в одином ряду с Австрией, Венрией, Эстонией, Португалией и рядом других европейских стран, а по параметру тяжести карантина - очень близка к Швеции. Швеция же, в свою очередь, по параметру смертности приближается (хотя, как мне кажется, все равно отстает) от Франции, Италии, Испании, Бельгии, Англии, драматически отличаясь от них по параметру тяжести карантина.
По-моему, предварительный вывод из этой истории примерно такой - динамика эпидемии (оказавшейся очень краткосрочной в любом случае) зависит от каких-то параметров, к числу которых НЕ относится введение наиболее тяжелых мер карантинной защиты, типа "локдаунов" (с тотальным закрытием предприятий, школ и ресторанов, запретом на передвижение и т.д.). Какие факторы по-настоящему определяют динамику эпидемии - еще предстоит выяснить. Это могут быть и демографическая структура, и какая-то национальная специфика прошлой вакцинации, и культурные традиции (от самодисциплины до наличия или отсутствия привычки обниматься-целоваться при встрече), и бог весть что еще.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 04:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 04:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 04:59 pm (UTC)i am not sure that your statement локдауны - бессмысленны и ничему не помогают, от них только вред can be made looking at just those graphs above. all these graphs say is that the disease is being better controlled in Sweden now, cases and deaths (more importantly) are on the way down and the trend looks optimistic.
jumping from that to - локдауны - бессмысленны и ничему не помогают - is quite a leap.
perhaps lockdowns helped reduce the overall number of deaths: in comparison to seimilar donuntries were lockdowns were effected, like Norway.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:01 pm (UTC)Израильтяне писали, что их методы сильно отличались от нью йоркских, и это сберегло много жизней
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:03 pm (UTC)that COULD be true, but this is not obvious to me, at all. it is one of possible explanations, and it is no better than a hypothesis.
what is NOT hypothetical are spikes in illness AND deaths following large gatherings ( in the US).
perhaps preventing those deaths by limiting or forbidding large gatherings is feasible.
as you may know, several US universities opened up and closed back up due to humdreds of new cases over one week of being open.
i am no advocate of harsh lockdown measures, but there must be a golden middle somewhere.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:33 pm (UTC)"Остальные меры тоже были очень скромные. Рестораны не закрывались, коллективные мероприятия ограничивались верхней границей в 200 человек, и т.д..
<...>
динамика эпидемии (оказавшейся очень краткосрочной в любом случае) зависит от каких-то параметров, к числу которых НЕ относится введение наиболее тяжелых мер карантинной защиты, типа "локдаунов" (с тотальным закрытием предприятий, школ и ресторанов, запретом на передвижение и т.д.). ".
То есть мораторий на подлинно массовые мероприятия, где люди вынужденно оказываются в тесной близости на протяжении нескольких часов - да, вполне мог сыграть роль. А локдауны - нет, не могли.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:38 pm (UTC)i generally tend not to discuss covid because it is such a bleary and difficult subject way beyond my skillset.
i mean i kinda decided what to do if it strikes, but that is not about covid, that's about me.
as far as israeli methods, good for them if true, but i have a hard time believing anything now. comparisons between countries esp. Israel and US appear to me inadequate and even facetious.
the bottom line that i bought into (not mine) so far: this thing is untreatable, like many viruses. possibly, an antiviral specific for ACE2 receptor protection or attacking the virus directly will be developed, but so far it has not been.
so "treatment protocols" are essentially "support protocols and throwing in the kitchen sink" protocols.
the studies i had seen are reprehensible in terms of methods, patient stratification, definitions of gravity of disease, and statistics.
it is possible that israelis came up with a support protocol that is better than ours or NYCs, where there was a mess, anyway. i am just not ready to accept any such claim upfront. if this is not flooding, i can explain why not.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 05:57 pm (UTC)Успех карантинов и локдаунов во Франции, Италии, Нью Йорке не оставляет никакого сомнения в эффективности этих мер, хотя я согласен, что в некоторых аспектах они были излишне строгими и скорее всего бесполезными. Напротив, то что мы сейчас наблюдаем в CA, TX, FL ясно показывает, хоть и не всем, что без закручивания гаек не обойтись.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:00 pm (UTC)BTW, i was nonplussed at the comparison of Northern Italy and Sweden as two opposing social cultures, leading to Lombardy disaster.
the truth is: they are not. inhabitants of northern alps, both french and italian side, are insular, sturdy and very cagey, unfriendly people. not romans, not sicilians. there is barely any street culture, families do not live together in multigenerational conclaves, as a rule, town people "self-isolate" at baseline, etc, etc.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:28 pm (UTC)i am not defending total lockdown as efficient, but it was a desperate measure, and it was not a success not because of it in itself, but because it was unenforceable and massively not adhered to. so your judgment "it did not work" based on Sweden or Norway or Spain is just not defensible, i believe.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 06:55 pm (UTC)В принципе, по смертности Швеция вполне вышла на латиноамериканский уровень и чуть не в два раза превысила средний уровень по EU.
Можно было бы сравнивать с Беларусью, но при сопоставимых количествах заболевших смертность в Беларуси тоже сильно ниже.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 09:03 pm (UTC)Полагаю, ответ лежит на поверхности.
Во-впервых, школы и университеты вовсе не обязательно должны работать в формате дискотек, то есть в школе и университете в принципе можно обеспечить минимальное дистанцирование. Чай, не медленный танец.
Во-вторых, мораторий на массовые мероприятия затрагивает взрослых людей. Так как дети этой гадостью практически не заболевают, то даже если они и подхватывают долю вируса, то остаются бессимптомными, то есть вероятность дальнейшего распространения будет очень небольшой.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 09:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 09:10 pm (UTC)В ЕС четко видны два кластера - пострадавшие очень сильно и пострадавшие очень мало.
А примеры Швеции и Норвегии как раз и показывают, что эта дихотомия, это разделение на два кластера - НЕ совпадает с другой дихотомией, с разделением на такие же два кластера, но уже по параметру жесткости карантина/локдауна.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 10:14 pm (UTC)how. can. you. say. that.
kids get it, they get horrendous side effects and lasting disability, some die.
they also infect others, who die.
very few of those kids make it to front pages, of course. some do, with kawasaki-like syndrome, unexplained strokes, increased instances of GBS, TE, ADEM as sequellae of a known "mild" covid illness.
but saying what you said is highly irresponsible.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-20 10:16 pm (UTC)Ну да, я скорее об этом.
Израильтяне очень осторожно сажали народ на вентиляторы, в отличии от того, что рассказывали про Нью Йорк.