herd immunity may be implicated
Oct. 5th, 2020 10:24 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
borislvinFatality rates related to COVID-19 in Japan have been low compared to Western Countries and have decreased despite the absence of lockdown. Serological tests monitored across the course of the second wave can provide insights into the population-level prevalence and dynamic patterns of COVID-19 infection.
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Six hundred fifteen healthy volunteers <...> received at least one test. Seroprevalence increased from 5.8 % to 46.8 % over the course of the summer. The most dramatic increase in SPR occurred in late June and early July, paralleling the rise in daily confirmed cases within Tokyo, which peaked on August 4. Out of the 350 individuals <...>who completed both offered tests, 21.4 % of those individuals who tested seronegative became seropositive and seroreversion was found in 12.2 % of initially seropositive participants. 81.1% of IgM positive cases at first testing became IgM negative in approximately one month.
Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 infection may have spread widely across the general population of Tokyo despite the very low fatality rate. Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf
<...>
Six hundred fifteen healthy volunteers <...> received at least one test. Seroprevalence increased from 5.8 % to 46.8 % over the course of the summer. The most dramatic increase in SPR occurred in late June and early July, paralleling the rise in daily confirmed cases within Tokyo, which peaked on August 4. Out of the 350 individuals <...>who completed both offered tests, 21.4 % of those individuals who tested seronegative became seropositive and seroreversion was found in 12.2 % of initially seropositive participants. 81.1% of IgM positive cases at first testing became IgM negative in approximately one month.
Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 infection may have spread widely across the general population of Tokyo despite the very low fatality rate. Given the temporal correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19 cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf
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Date: 2020-10-06 05:00 am (UTC)С другой стороны:
Borough Park in NYC has one of the highest antibody rates seen in the developed world: 43.9%, based on a huge testing program covering almost 1/3 of local pop. This week positivity rates of Covid-19 tests coming back hit 17%.
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Date: 2020-10-06 07:40 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-10-06 07:56 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-10-06 11:38 pm (UTC)Coronavirus Cases Rise in Parts of New York City
Areas with highest infection rates generally are home to large communities of ultra-Orthodox Jewish families
By Melanie Grayce West
Updated Sept. 28, 2020 4:46 pm ET
Covid-19 cases continue to surge in several neighborhoods in New York City and in neighboring Rockland and Orange counties, a worrisome sign that a handful of hotspots may develop into wider community spread.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Monday that the rate of infection in 10 of the state’s ZIP Codes was about 15%, but those areas represent about 25% of new cases in the state.
The top 10 ZIP Codes include two in Rockland County, encompassing the areas around Monsey and Spring Valley. In ZIP Code 10977, 30% of people tested were positive, while it was 25% in ZIP Code 10952.
In Orange County, ZIP Code 10950, the positivity rate was 22%; that neighborhood includes the cities of Kiryas Joel and Monroe.
In addition, eight neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens are outpacing the New York City-wide average by 3.7 times over the past two weeks, city health officials have said. In the Borough Park neighborhood, ZIP Code 11219, the Covid-19 positivity rate was 17%, said Mr. Cuomo. In the Midwood ZIP Code, he said, the positivity rate was 11%.
“I want a quick response,” said Mr. Cuomo.
The areas where the infection rates are highest are generally home to large communities of ultra-Orthodox Jewish families.
New York City health officials said Monday that Covid-19 positivity rates in four other Brooklyn neighborhoods, which sit adjacent to the hot-spot areas, are also rising. Those new neighborhoods included the Brighton Beach area, Kensington and Windsor Terrace in Brooklyn, and Kew Gardens and Rego Park in Queens. Kew Gardens, according to the health department, now has a positivity rate greater than 3%, using a 14-day average.
Elsewhere in New York City, the infection rate has held at about 1% in recent months.
On Monday, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city’s rate of people who tested positive for Covid-19 was at 1.93%. Health-department data also show an increase in the city overall in the number of hospitalized patients with Covid-19. This week, the city is set to further open schools and will roll out limited indoor dining.
City health officials said last week that they would consider measures including shutting down nonessential businesses and limiting the size of gatherings if the infection rates didn’t improve in the hot-spot areas.
Health commissioner Dave Chokshi has said the health department will move as swiftly as the situation warrants. The health department said Monday that it would be deploying 11 mobile-testing units in hot spots, and will conduct outreach to nonpublic schools.
Elsewhere in New York City, the infection rate has held at about 1% for weeks.
Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, urged local governments to enforce social distancing and mask-wearing regulations. He said the state had supplemented enforcement in some areas, including at bars and restaurants. He said the state would make machines for rapid-testing of Covid-19 available immediately to local governments and to private schools in the most-affected areas.
“You’re going to make more people unhappy if the infection rate comes up and we have to close business or tighten up gatherings,” the governor said. “If you don’t act responsibly, it’s going to be worse.”
—Jimmy Vielkind contributed to this article.
Write to Melanie Grayce West at melanie.west@wsj.com
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Date: 2020-10-07 01:35 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-10-07 04:31 am (UTC)https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1311208954836316160?s=19